Analisis tecnico: Analisis Tecnico de Los Mercados Financieros Forex: b&w Ingenieria Financiera Elemental, Aplicada Al Comercio de Divisas O Forex. Language: spanish by Berenguer, Carlos: New 2018 GreatBookPrices

Mounting constraints arising on liquidity and debt markets (with the discontinued decline in long-term yields) will have a bearing on equity markets in the months ahead. Even so, both shares and commodities are in good shape over the long term on the momentum front (i.e. solely from this angle). This suggests that the negative fallout from the preceding point will not result in a major downside-reversal signal for some time yet – perhaps not until 2011 or even later. For now, as we head into 2010, the LT momentum signal is bullish on both equities and commodities.

When the ratio punches below a trendline, this reveals that commodities are developing positively. This can be taken as a buy signal confirming trends or recoveries observed on other financial markets. On the other hand, upside violations frequently coincide with the onset of consolidation on commodities , yielding a confirmed sell signal on equities.

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The ratio’s trajectory both now and over the longer term portrays conditions supportive of equities. However, our momentum oscillator is staging an upside cross suggestive of a likely upswing in early 2010. • The stocks/commodities ratio is decreasing over the long term, signalling reversion to a stock-market environment perceived as more prone to inflation, and points towards a rise in long-term yields over 2010. • The ratio between equities and long-term yields is rising over the medium/long term. The course followed by long-term yields is not yet dampening the outlook for equity markets; nonetheless, this ratio has reached overbought territory and could swing to the downside in the initial months of 2010.

Analisis Tecnico

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SHORT TERM • Over the short term, the market continues to prefer commodities to bonds and is not showing any early indications of a reversal. The opinions given in the document reflect our appraisal at the time of publication and may therefore be revised at a later date. Because financial, economic and technical analysis use different methods, 4 conflicting conclusions are possible. Technical analysis Tuesday 5 January 2010 The long-term technical status flagged by the above chart is that bearish signals have appeared in terms of market liquidity and the direction of yields on long-term US debt. PINPOINTING LT UPSIDE REVERSAL POINTS VIA LT RATES OF CHANGE The charts also substantiate the conventional chronological order. The main lesson is that following positive liquidity stimulus in and 2008 , equities and commodities issued a long-term bull signal as recently as in November 2009.

Analisis Tecnico

Technical analysis Tuesday 5 January 2010 Part I – Technical environment As we turn the corner into 2010, we might rightly ask ourselves about the technical context. Our analysis in this section will shed some light on the question. I – Asset allocation The following table shows the technical status of the leading three asset classes as we head into 2010 based on key ratios. Naturally, ratios cannot be interpreted in the same manner when analysing in the long or short term. Ratio Short term Medium/long term Bonds/Commodities Stocks/Commodities Stocks/10-year bonds LONG TERM WEEKLY – T-NOTES / COMMODITY INDEX • The ratio of T-Notes against Commodities started to decrease in March 2009. The most important indication it can give us are the points of reversal .